This piece is a briefing paper for incoming officials who will be elected during the May 9, 2016 elections who will be appointed subsequently.
Its message is basic: the government expects demand for electricity for the period 2012-2030 to grow by around 4.25% (to 23,158 MW by 2030). The details are in the government’s Philippine Energy Plan 2012-2030. PEP 2012 also includes a Philippine Energy Efficiency Project (PEEP) which targets a 200-MW savings in electricity demand annually, bringing down the growth rate in demand to around 3.28% (19,558 MW by 2030). To keep the grid reliable, required reserves must also be added according to a government formula, making the required supply roughly 11-16% above the projected demand (21,634 MW by 2030).
The government has a National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), which targets some 9,525 MW of capacity to be installed in the planning period 2012-2030.
Our remarkable finding is that if we take the existing and committed supply as given (16,244 MW as of 2011), the NREP renewable-only targets are more than enough to provide the required supply up to 2030.
Thus, there is no need to build any new coal or other fossil-fueled power plants in the future.
For the details, please download the briefing paper.